Rystad Energy

Proud to continue our partnership with Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) and looking forward to being in Houston this year. OTC is one of those moments where the industry truly comes together to exchange views, challenge assumptions, and reset perspectives on where energy is heading. With everything happening across offshore markets — from cost inflation and supply chain constraints to capital discipline and shifting energy priorities — this year’s conversations will be especially important. At Rystad Energy, we’ll be contributing with data-driven insights to help frame these discussions and bring more clarity to a complex landscape. Ahead of the conference, I’m sharing our latest white paper below ... it sets the stage for many of the topics we expect to explore in Houston. If you’ll be there, I’d love to connect. https://lnkd.in/dWrUzV2a #OTC2026 #OffshoreTechnologyConference #EnergyTransition #OilAndGas #EnergyIndustry #Offshore #OffshoreEnergy #EnergySupplyChain #EnergyMarkets #Upstream #RystadEnergy

Looking forward to the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston this year and continuing the conversation with leaders across the global energy landscape. Rystad Energy is excited to continue our partnership with OTC, bringing forward data-driven perspectives on the key challenges and opportunities shaping the industry. Ahead of the conference, I encourage you to take a few minutes to read our latest white paper below. It sets the stage for many of the discussions we expect to have in Houston. Looking forward to connecting in person and exchanging views on where the market is heading. https://lnkd.in/gm7g7rjF

$100 oil is more than just a headline, it has real implications for global supply 🌍 In our latest Rystad Energy analysis, we explore what a sustained $100/bbl oil price could mean for South America: https://lnkd.in/eynz5Nv2 The headline number is significant: up to 2.1 million bpd of additional crude supply could be unlocked. But a large share of near-term growth, around 1 million bpd is expected to come from offshore developments, particularly in Brazil and Guyana, where projects are already progressing 🛢️ “Higher oil prices alone are not enough - project maturity, infrastructure and policy clarity will ultimately determine how much new supply materializes.” Great teamwork with Vadranam Sai Krishna and Flávio Ferreira Menten on this piece 🤝, and glad to have contributed. A reminder that price signals still matter but translating them into actual barrels is never straightforward ⚖️ Happy to discuss the assumptions and regional dynamics further.

Fantastic week at Tube Düsseldorf for Rystad Energy meeting so many old friends and new contacts. Thank you, in particular, to EUROPIPE GmbH , CORINTH PIPEWORKS and ITA International Tube Association for hosting us to discuss the latest developments in the tube and pipe markets. Swastik Das & Matt Loffman #Steel #oil #gas #OCTG #linepipe

Hot take that isn't actually that hot - Energy crises don't automatically accelerate the transition. I know that's not what the headlines suggest, but there's a lot more complexity than just saying - Increasing #gas prices -> more #renewables everywhere. We've been tracking how the Middle East situation is affecting all energy markets, and the honest answer is that it's pushing in multiple directions at once. Renewables get a policy tailwind from energy security arguments, but they also face real cost pressures and real life constraints in the power markets that don't disappear just because gas prices are high. You still face the same issue, that what many power markets need at the moment is flexibility - flexibility - flexibility! Jumped on the #LetsTalkEnergy podcast with Noah Brenner to work through what we're actually seeing. https://lnkd.in/eWfnAijA #Power #Gas Rystad Energy

Great to have joined TRT World to discuss the latest on Strait of Hormuz crisis and why the signals are more alarming than the headlines suggest. On the blockade: 20% of global oil and 25% of LNG transit Hormuz daily. A functioning blockade removes that almost immediately. But this is a pressure tactic with a rising cost curve on both sides, not a sustainable end state. Every day it holds, the cost mounts. The strategic logic requires a negotiated exit. The question is how much economic damage accumulates before that exit is found. On Iran's economy: Over 90% of Iran's seaborne trade passes through Hormuz. The squeeze is severe and accelerating. But Tehran has been rehearsing for this for over a decade: shadow fleets, alternative payment channels, Chinese intermediaries. The real question is not whether the pressure is real. It is whether it lands fast enough to change political calculus before the regime stabilises domestically. All of this matters more acutely with the April 22 ceasefire deadline approaching. Economic pressure of this magnitude, compounding daily, could harden positions on both sides just as negotiations need room to move. The window for a deal is narrowing precisely when the cost of not reaching one is rising fastest. On prices and trader uncertainty: Futures near $94 reflect diplomatic optimism. Physical spot hit an all-time high above $140, a significant premium over paper. Under normal conditions those two numbers are nearly identical. That spread does not exist without acute scarcity on the ground. The financial market has not priced in what is actually happening on the water. Uncertainty is the trade right now. Three questions. One consistent thread: the gap between what markets are pricing and what is physically happening keeps widening. At Rystad Energy we are tracking this in near real time across upstream outages, LNG flows, refinery impacts, marine traffic, and recovery timelines, helping clients make faster and better informed decisions as this situation develops. Let's connect to discuss further. #EnergyMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #OilAndGas #Geopolitics #TRTWorld #USIran

Great to have joined NDTV Profit with Vikram Oza again to discuss the collapse of the Islamabad ceasefire talks and what it means for the Strait of Hormuz, global oil markets, and the US–China energy dimension. A few things stand out from the conversation: The talks failed and the stakes only grew. Twenty-one hours of negotiations ended without agreement. A naval blockade is now in effect. The ceasefire expires April 22 with no path back to the table confirmed. This is no longer a diplomatic pause. It is an active energy crisis. Oil is now functioning like tariffs and sanctions. Trade measures, financial sanctions, and physical supply disruption are converging on the same actors at the same time. That combination has no real historical precedent. Markets are still underpricing the risk. Brent crossed $100 and analysts see meaningfully higher levels if April 22 passes without a deal. A resolution also does not mean immediate relief. The tanker backlog takes weeks to clear and downstream impacts on food, fertilisers, and supply chains are not yet priced in. China is the variable markets are not fully reading. China sources 45–50% of its oil through the Strait and purchases over 80% of Iran's crude in yuan. Yuan-denominated transit fees are already in place. This has become a contest over dollar dominance in commodity pricing, not just a military standoff. The miscalculation risk is structural. Neither side is seeking full escalation but multiple simultaneous tripwires exist. Economic retaliation is more likely than direct confrontation. The window for an off-ramp is narrowing. The structural lesson holds. Geography, transit risk, and political alignment now price into every barrel. The era of energy as a purely commercial commodity is over. At Rystad Energy we are tracking this in near real time to help clients make faster and better informed decisions. Let's connect to discuss further. #EnergyMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #OilAndGas #Geopolitics #RystadEnergy #NDTVProfit #USIran #ChinaEnergy